Northern Territories remains the largest pending matter left between Japan and Russia, recent developments add to regional tensions

For over a year, Japan has been engaged in a growingly serious territorial dispute with China over the sovereignty of several islands in the East 'China' Sea. A similar dispute with Russia has known new developments on the Northern Territories' Day (February 7). Japan scrambled four fighter jets to intercept two Russian fighters which allegedly invaded Japan airspace near the Kuril Islands, whose rights Japan renounced in the 1951 peace treaty it signed with the Allies – non-including the Soviet Union.

According to a pamphlet updated in July 2012 and published by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, the "Northern Territories consist of four islands located off the northeast coast of the Nemuro Peninsula of Hokkaido. They are: Habomai, Shikotan, Kunashiri and Etorofu. The Northern Territories are not included in the Kuril Islands," it underlined. Russia actually claims these islands are part of the Kurils. Armed with the United States' support, Japan affirms "the Northern Territories are inherent territories of Japan that continues to be illegally occupied by Russia."

From the Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration of 1956 to the Japan-Russian Action Plan of 2003, the two countries showed apparent willingness to resolve the issue peacefully and to find an "acceptable solution." Yet it seems the situation has kept worsening, especially since then-President Dmitry Medvedev became the first Russian head of state to visit the Kurils, in 2010 and in 2012. "It is important to develop cooperative relations with Russia (…) while making progress on solving the (Northern Territories) issue," Japanese then-Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba told on November 20, 2012.

Since then, Shinzo Abe, President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP, conservative) became the Prime Minister of Japan on December 26. Taking a more "nationalist" stance than his predecessor, Mr Abe described the situation surrounding Japan as "becoming increasingly severe" and affirmed his Cabinet will "defend in a resolute manner (…) the territory, territorial waters, and territorial airspace." This shift prompted a strong reaction from China while Russia preferred a softer stance. "The question of a peace treaty (with Japan) has a relatively recent history," said Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Japan and Russia "repeatedly agreed to solve the issue without emotion, pumping passions in the public mind," Mr Lavrov added.

At the 2013 National Rally to Demand the Return of the Northern Territories, held in Tokyo, Mr Abe reiterated his determination "to make every effort to resolve the Northern Territories issue," and announced that the campaign towards that goal would continue to be promoted, "more robustly than ever." According to diplomatic sources, it's unlikely that the language of "demanding" from Russia could ever result in positive developments. A suggestion the sending of the two Russian jets seemed to validate.

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