Nightmare fallout, Nuclear Terrorism is the most lethal threat and should be addressed as such

"The greatest threat to United States and global security is no longer a nuclear exchange between nations, but nuclear terrorism by violent extremists and nuclear proliferation to an increasing number of States," President Barack Obama said on April 6, 2010. "The prospect of nuclear terrorism threatens international security. We are united in our resolve to defuse this threat," United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon explained in his remarks at the Seoul Nuclear Security Summit hosted in March 2012 by the Republic of Korea.

Since then, there has been some progress though Mr Ban regretted that no "verifiable and legally binding fissile material cut-off treaty" existed. The third nuclear test carried out by North Korea on February 12 in spite of tough sanctions and unanimous condemnation by the international community sounded as a reminder of what could be the most lethal threat ever: nuclear terrorism. Established in 1979 and with a current membership of 65 countries, the stalemate of the UN Conference on Disarmament (CD) seems complete. Yet it is the only relevant instrument at the international level, apart from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which has the potential to cease the nuclear arms race and advance nuclear disarmament. According to the UN, CD's participating countries have not been able to "overcome differences" and "start substantive work towards disarmament."

In addition, 85 nations participate in the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GICNT). It was launched jointly by the Presidents of Russia and the United States in July 2006 during the G8 Summit in St Petersburg. According to the US Department of State, the mission of the GICNT "is to strengthen global capacity to prevent, detect, and respond to nuclear terrorism by conducting multilateral activities that strengthen the plans, policies, procedures, and interoperability of partner nations." An Implementation and Assessment Group (IAG) was launched in 2010 as the "working arm" of the partnership and aims at implementing the priorities and coordinating the needed actions identified by the GICNT. With Spain as the main coordinator, the IAG's priorities are nuclear detection, nuclear forensics and response and mitigation.

"It is especially important to improve safekeeping and control of nuclear materials, ensure physical security at nuclear facilities, and strengthen our potential to counter terrorist attacks involving nuclear materials," then-President Dmitry Medvedev said in the light of the March 2011 nuclear power facility accident in Fukushima, Japan. There is indeed a "strong international agreement that the threat is serious enough to justify the kind of resources needed to solve the problem," Gary Samore, President Obama's Coordinator for Weapons of Mass Destruction Counter-Terrorism and Arms Control, said in April 2010. According to Mr Samore, the question is no longer "whether nuclear terrorism is really serious," but how to prevent terrorists from really building nuclear weapons or from getting their hands on fissile material.

That's why the 2010 Washington Nuclear Security Summit recognized "the need for cooperation among States to effectively prevent and respond to incidents of illicit nuclear trafficking," let alone that most of the experts agree that, first there are terrorists who seek to obtain nuclear materials, and second, these terrorists would be very likely to use it as a deadly weapon. "If (the terror groups) ever succeeded (in getting their hands on one nuclear weapon), they would surely use it," President Obama warned. China shares similar concerns and is committed to addressing the threat of nuclear terrorism. "We should (…) increase the universality of the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism and effectively crack down on the illicit trafficking in nuclear materials," Chinese President Hu Jintao underlined.

The threat of nuclear terrorism is quite absent from media coverage, DiploNews noticed. So far, it has fortunately remained a theoretical nightmare scenario and there has been no publicly available information which says any terrorist group currently possesses or is suspected of possessing fissile material or a nuclear weapon. As Mexico is to host the next GICNT Plenary Meeting this year, there is hope that the third nuclear test by North Korea will increase the awareness that much remains to be done so that the scenario remains theoretical. To conclude, Nations themselves have yet to enter the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) into force.

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